Election results, 2023: State government trifectas
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After the November 2023 elections, there were 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments. Republicans gained one trifecta, Democrats neither gained nor lost any trifectas, and there was one less divided government. Before the 2023 elections, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party held trifecta control.
State government trifecta is a term to describe single-party government, when one political party holds the governorship and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Following the November 2023 elections, there were a total of 40 state government trifectas. This was the highest number of trifectas across the country since at least 1992.
The only change in trifecta status was in Louisiana, which changed from a divided government to a Republican trifecta after Jeff Landry (R) was elected governor on October 14.
Kentucky remained a divided government after Gov. Andy Beshear (D) was re-elected governor. The Kentucky State Legislature was not on the ballot in 2023, so it remained under Republican control. Virginia remained a divided government after Democrats maintained control of the Virginia State Senate and won the Virginia House of Delegates. Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) was not up for election in 2023.
Mississippi and New Jersey remained Republican and Democratic trifectas, respectively, after those parties maintained partisan control of the legislature in each state. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) was re-elected in Mississippi, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) was not up for election in 2023.
On this page, you will find:
- Trifectas on the ballot in 2023
- The partisan balance of trifectas in all 50 states before and after the 2023 elections
- Pre-election analysis of trifecta vulnerability, potential new trifectas, and best-case scenarios for each party
- A log of trifecta election results
- Historical changes since 2010
Trifectas on the ballot in 2023
In 2023, there were five trifectas—one Democratic, one Republican, and three divided governments— on the ballot. The table below highlights the partisan balance of those five trifectas before and after the election.
Trifectas partisan breakdown | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of the 2023 elections | After the 2023 elections | ||||
Democratic | 1 | 1 | ||||
Republican | 1 | 2 | ||||
Divided governments | 3 | 2 |
The map below highlights states that held elections for governor, state legislature, or both in 2023 by the party of the winning candidate.
Partisan balance of all trifectas
At the time of the 2023 election, there were 22 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 11 divided governments where neither party held trifecta control. The table below highlights the trifecta status of all 50 states before and after the 2023 elections.
Trifectas partisan breakdown | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Party | As of the 2023 elections | After the 2023 elections | ||||
Democratic | 17 | 17 | ||||
Republican | 22 | 23 | ||||
Divided governments | 11 | 10 |
The chart below shows the trifecta status of all 50 states from 1992 through 2024, when the 2023 election winners will be sworn in.
The map below highlights each state by trifecta status before and after the 2023 elections. Click the blue links above the color key to switch the view between pre-election and post-election partisan control.
Pre-election analysis
Vulnerable state government trifectas
The section below analyses the vulnerability of trifectas on the ballot in 2023 based on gubernatorial race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, and the number and proportion of seats in the state legislature that needed to change party control to flip the chamber. Click here to read more about our methodology.
Democratic Party Current status: 1 trifecta Moderately vulnerable: 1 |
Republican Party Current status: 1 trifecta Not vulnerable: 1 |
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Vulnerable trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details.
Potential new trifectas
The section below analyses the likelihood of divided governments on the ballot in 2023 becoming new trifectas based on gubernatorial race ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, and the number and proportion of seats in the state legislature that needed to change party control to flip the chamber. Click here to read more about our methodology.
Predicted Democratic pickups None |
Toss-ups None |
Predicted Republican pickups Moderate possibility: 2 Slight possibility: 1 |
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Potential new trifectas
Hover your mouse cursor over a state or tap the state for more details. Toss-up states are those where Democratic and Republican trifectas both have a good chance of forming.
Potential best-case scenarios
The following maps represent best-case scenarios for each party based on pre-election projections and forecasting. We define a party's best-case scenario as an outcome in which the party gains all potential new trifectas that are rated towards that party or as a toss-up, as well as retaining all of their current trifectas. Additionally, under a party's best-case scenario, the opposing party loses all of its somewhat and moderately vulnerable trifectas.
The Democrats' best-case scenario was for there to be no change from the trifecta status in place before the 2023 elections.
Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Democrats | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
States | 50 | 17 | 22 | 11 | |||||
Population | 328,771,307[1] | 136,955,272 | 130,058,201 | 61,757,834 | |||||
Proportion (%) | 100% | 41.7% | 39.6% | 18.8% | |||||
Source: U.S. Census Bureau |
The Republicans' best-case scenario in 2023 was to break the Democratic trifecta in New Jersey and gain new trifectas in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Virginia.
Percentage of Americans living under trifectas following a best-case 2022 election for Republicans | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Democratic trifectas | Republican trifectas | Divided governments | ||||||
States | 50 | 16 | 25 | 9 | |||||
Population | 328,771,307[2] | 128,072,901 | 147,771,333 | 52,927,073 | |||||
Proportion (%) | 100% | 39.0% | 44.9% | 16.1% | |||||
Source: U.S. Census Bureau |
Log of trifecta election results
- 12:31 a.m.: Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves (R) won re-election, meaning Mississippi retained a Republican trifecta.
- 12:05 a.m.: Democrats retained control of the New Jersey General Assembly and New Jersey State Senate, meaning the state retained a Democratic trifecta.
- 11:02 p.m.: Democrats gained control of the Virginia House of Delegates.
- 10:09 p.m.: Democrats retained control of the Virginia State Senate.
- 10:00 p.m.: Republicans retained control of the Mississippi House of Representatives.
- 9:30 p.m.: Republicans retained control of the Mississippi State Senate.
- 9:00 p.m.: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (D) won re-election, meaning Kentucky retained a divided government.
Historical changes in trifecta status (2010-2022)
2022
The 2022 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Democratic Party gained trifectas in Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota.
- The Democratic Party lost a trifecta in Nevada.
- The Republican Party lost a trifecta in Arizona.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2022 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
Arizona | Republican | Divided government |
Maryland | Divided government | Democratic |
Massachusetts | Divided government | Democratic |
Michigan | Divided government | Democratic |
Minnesota | Divided government | Democratic |
Nevada | Democratic | Divided government |
2021
The 2021 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Democratic Party lost a trifecta in Virginia.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2021 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
Virginia | Democratic | Divided government |
2020
The 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Republican Party gained trifectas in Montana and New Hampshire.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2020 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
Montana | Divided government | Republican |
New Hampshire | Divided government | Republican |
2019
The 2019 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Republican Party lost a trifecta in Kentucky.
- The Democratic Party gained a trifecta in Virginia.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2019 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
Kentucky | Republican | Divided government |
Virginia | Divided government | Democratic |
2018
The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 6, 2018, led to these results:
- The Republican Party lost four trifectas (in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin), ending up with 22 in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
- The Democratic Party added new state government trifectas in six states: Colorado, Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, New York, and Nevada. They did not lose any trifectas, leaving them with 14.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2018 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
Colorado | Divided government | Democratic |
Illinois | Divided government | Democratic |
Kansas | Republican | Divided government |
Maine | Divided government | Democratic |
Michigan | Republican | Divided government |
Nevada | Divided government | Democratic |
New Hampshire | Republican | Divided government |
New Mexico | Divided government | Democratic |
New York | Divided government | Democratic |
Wisconsin | Republican | Divided government |
2017
The 2017 gubernatorial and state legislative elections led to these results:
- The Democratic Party gained trifectas in New Jersey and Washington.
Partisan control changes as a result of the 2017 elections | ||
---|---|---|
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power |
New Jersey | Divided government | Democratic |
Washington | Divided government | Democratic |
2016
The state legislative and gubernatorial elections of November 8, 2016, led to these results:
- The Republican Party added new state government trifectas in four states (Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and New Hampshire). They lost trifectas in Nevada and North Carolina, which left them with 25 trifectas.
- The Democratic Party lost one trifecta (in Vermont), ending up with trifectas in six states. They did not gain any additional trifectas.
- One of the six trifectas held by the Democratic Party, in Delaware, was at stake in a special state senate election 2017 to fill the seat that was vacated by Bethany Hall-Long when she was sworn in as Lieutenant Governor of Delaware. If that one seat flipped to Republican control, the Delaware Democratic trifecta would have been broken.[3]
- Another of the six trifectas held by the Democratic Party, in Connecticut, is a thin trifecta. In the November 8, 2016 state legislative elections in Connecticut, Republicans added three seats in the state senate bringing the balance of power to 18-18. Ballotpedia is still counting this as a trifecta for the Democrats because in the case of a tie vote in the state senate, the tie is broken by the Lieutenant Governor of Connecticut...a position held by a Democrat.[4]
State | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power | Change? |
---|---|---|---|
Colorado | Divided government | Divided government | No |
Iowa | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
Indiana | Republican | Republican | No |
Kentucky | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
Maine | Divided government | Divided government | No |
Michigan | Republican | Republican | No |
Minnesota | Divided government | Divided government | No |
Missouri | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
Montana | Divided government | Divided government | No |
Nevada | Republican | Divided government | Yes |
New Hampshire | Divided government | Republican | Yes |
New Mexico | Divided government | Divided government | No |
New York | Divided government | Divided government | No |
North Carolina | Republican | Divided government | Yes |
Vermont | Democrat | Divided government | Yes |
Washington | Divided government | Divided government | No |
West Virginia | Divided government | Divided government | No |
Wisconsin | Republican | Republican | No |
2014
Potential trifecta losses prior to election
Ballotpedia identified 13 trifecta states that could have become divided governments after the November 4, 2014, election:[5]
- 6 Republican trifectas
- 7 Democratic trifectas[5]
In the table below, a "Yes" indicates that party control was considered up for grabs, while a "No" indicates races that were not deemed likely to change hands.
State | Positions that could change hands | Pre-election party in power | Post-election party in power | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | Senate | House | |||
Arizona | Yes | Yes | No | Republican | Republican |
Colorado | No | Yes | No | Democratic | Divided government |
Connecticut | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Democratic |
Florida | Yes | No | No | Republican | Republican |
Illinois | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
Kansas | Yes | No | No | Republican | Republican |
Maryland | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
Massachusetts | Yes | No | No | Democratic | Divided government |
Michigan | Yes | No | Yes | Republican | Republican |
Minnesota | No | No | Yes | Democratic | Divided government |
Pennsylvania | Yes | Yes | Yes | Republican | Divided government |
West Virginia | No | No | Yes | Democratic | Divided government |
Wisconsin | Yes | Yes | No | Republican | Republican |
2013
November
Virginia's governorship swung Democratic on November 5, 2013, as Terry McAuliffe (D) defeated Ken Cuccinelli (R). This removed a Republican trifecta in Virginia.
May
In May 2013, Governor of Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee changed his party affiliation from independent to Democratic, giving the Democratic Party a trifecta in Rhode Island.[6]
2012
Heading into the 2012 elections, there were 33 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were five new trifectas, bringing the total to 38 trifectas. However, following the election, power-sharing arrangements in two states reduced the total trifectas to 36.
Trifecta complexities
There were three states that complicated the labeling of trifectas in 2012 and 2013. These three unique situations brought the total trifectas from 37 to 36, decreasing the Democratic states by two and adding one GOP state.
- In New York, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; five elected Democrats pledged to caucus with the GOP. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[7]
- In Virginia, the state Senate was a tied chamber as a result of the 2011 elections. However, the tiebreaking vote was cast by the lieutenant governor, who was a Republican. Thus, control of the governorship and state legislature effectively rested with the Republicans. This gave Republicans an additional trifecta, increasing the total trifectas by one state.[8]
- In Washington, the Democratic Party, by virtue of the elections, controlled all three levels of government. However, a power-sharing agreement was reached that gave control of the state Senate over to the Republicans; two conservative Democrats pledged to elect Republican leadership to the chamber. This burst the Democratic trifecta, reducing the total trifectas by one state.[9]
Trifectas before and after the 2012 election |
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2010
Heading into the 2010 elections, there were 25 total trifectas in the United States. After the election, there were seven new trifectas, bringing the total to 32 trifectas.
Trifectas before and after the 2010 election |
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Analysis of state elections, 2023
State legislative elections
- See also: State legislative elections, 2023
Eight of the country's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly-scheduled elections in 2023. Elections in those eight chambers represented 578 of the country's 7,386 state legislative seats (7.8%). This was the most seats up for election in an odd-numbered year since 2011.
- Democrats gained control of one state legislative chamber by winning partisan control of the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats maintained control of the state Senate. Virginia's trifecta status remained divided.
- Republicans were guaranteed simple majorities in both Mississippi's House and Senate and Louisiana's House and Senate due to the number of districts where candidates from only one political party ran.
- Democrats maintained partisan control of both chambers of the New Jersey state legislature.
Analysis
- State legislative special elections
- Impact of term limits
- Primary competitiveness
- Incumbents defeated
- Contested primaries
- Open seats
- Incumbents in contested primaries
- Major party competition
- Annual report
- Veto-proof state legislatures and opposing party governors
- Rematches in 2023 general elections
- Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2023
- Election results, 2023: State legislative veto-proof majorities
- Uncontested races by state
- Incumbent win rates by state
- Minor-party candidates who won more than the margin of victory
State executive elections
- See also: State executive official elections, 2023
Analysis
- State executive official elections overview
- Gubernatorial elections
- Secretary of State elections
- Attorney General elections
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Trifecta vulnerability
- State government trifectas
- States with multiple statewide offices up for election
- Impact of term limits
- Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2023
- Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2023
- Uncontested races by state
- Incumbent win rates by state
State judicial elections
- See also: State judicial elections, 2023
A total of 15 state appellate court seats were up for election in 2023. This includes:
- 2 supreme court seats
- 13 intermediate appellate court seats.
The number of state supreme court and intermediate court elections is subject to change if judges retire or are appointed.
Ballotpedia provided coverage of supreme court and intermediate appellate court elections, as well as local trial court elections for judges within the 100 largest cities in the United States as measured by population.
Analysis
- State supreme court elections, 2023
- State judicial elections, 2023
- Ballotpedia's Top 15 Elections to Watch, 2023
- Uncontested races by state
- Incumbent win rates by state
See also
- Trifecta vulnerability in the 2023 elections
- State government trifectas
- Historical and potential changes in trifectas
- Election results, 2023
Footnotes
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "State Population Totals: 2010-2020," accessed March 14, 2022
- ↑ Delaware State News, "Balance of Delaware senate shifts after Blevins loss", November 9, 2016
- ↑ Hartford Courant, "Republicans Will Share Driver's Seat In CT", November 11, 2016
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Note: Illinois and Minnesota were not in this list prior to election night but were added on November 4.
- ↑ Politico, "Lincoln Chafee switches affiliation to Democrat," May 30, 2013
- ↑ National Journal, "GOP, IDC Strike Deal on NY Senate Power Sharing," December 4, 2012
- ↑ NBC 10, "Republicans take control of Va. Senate," January 11, 2012
- ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "GOP-led coalition grabs power in WA Senate," December 10, 2012
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