Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 13, 2023
2023 State Legislative Competitiveness | |
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Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Uncontested incumbents • Incumbents defeated Primary statistics | |
Ballotpedia's 13th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzed all 578 state legislative seats that were up for election in November 2023 in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
In 2023, the overall State Legislative Competitiveness Index increased from a decade high 30.8 in 2019 to 31.6. This analysis only includes odd years when all four states held elections (2011, 2015, 2019, and 2023). The data show that 138 (24%) legislative seats up for election were open. This was the largest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
Of the four states holding elections this year (and previously together in 2011, 2015, and 2019), New Jersey had the highest competitiveness index in all four cycles.
This year's index score was higher than in 2019 because there were more head-to-head matchups between Republican and Democratic candidates. Additionally, the number of open seat contests was the largest since at least 2011.
Key findings of this report include:
Nationwide State Legislative Competitiveness Index, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
House | 25.3% | 24.3% | 42.0% | 30.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 20.5% | 29.7% | 51.5% | 33.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total | 23.9% | 26.0% | 44.8% | 31.6 |
This report is organized into five sections. They are:
- Competitiveness overview
- State-specific competitiveness information
- Open seats
- Incumbents in contested primaries
- Major party competition
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:
- Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
- Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
- Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.
These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).
The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2023 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2023 | ||||||||
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2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | AVERAGE | |
Competitiveness Index | 28.1 | 30.3 | 25.4 | 34.9 | 30.8 | 40.0 | 31.6 | 31.5 |
Open seats | 17.0% | 6.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 19.5% | 7.7% | 23.9% | 16.3% |
Inc. in contested primaries | 21.4% | 11.7% | 23.3% | 16.0% | 28.9% | 19.7% | 26.0% | 22.5% |
Seats with major party competition | 46.0% | 72.3% | 38.3% | 79.5% | 44.1% | 92.7% | 44.8% | 59.7% |
The graphic below combines these figures for every election cycle from 2011 to 2023, showing the change in competitiveness, and how each criterion affects the overall competitiveness indices, over time.
State overviews
Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index in 2023, along with their respective values for the three criteria and ranks.
State Legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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State | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
% | Rk. | % | Rk. | % | Rk. | # | Rk. | |||||||||||||||||
Nationwide | 23.9% | - | 26.0% | - | 44.8% | - | 31.6 | - | ||||||||||||||||
Louisiana | 29.2% | 2 | 38.2% | 1 | 17.4% | 3 | 28.3 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||
Mississippi | 13.8% | 4 | 28.0% | 2 | 14.4% | 4 | 18.7 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||
New Jersey | 23.3% | 3 | 18.3% | 3 | 91.7% | 1 | 44.4 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
Virginia | 31.4% | 1 | 17.3% | 4 | 70.7% | 2 | 39.8 | 2 |
Click [show] on the table below to view each state's State Legislative Competitiveness Index from 2011 to 2023.
State Legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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State | 2011 | 2013 | 2015 | 2017 | 2019 | 2021 | 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
# | Rk. | # | Rk. | # | Rk. | # | Rk. | # | Rk. | # | Rk. | # | Rk. | |||||||||||
Nationwide | 28.1 | - | 30.3 | - | 25.4 | - | 34.9 | - | 30.8 | - | 40.0 | - | 31.6 | - | ||||||||||
Louisiana | 30.9 | 2 | - | - | 24.7 | 3 | - | - | 37.7 | 2 | - | - | 28.3 | 3 | ||||||||||
Mississippi | 25.3 | 3 | - | - | 26.7 | 2 | - | - | 23.0 | 4 | - | - | 18.7 | 4 | ||||||||||
New Jersey | 42.3 | 1 | 38.9 | 1 | 38.2 | 1 | 43.6 | 1 | 44.3 | 1 | 41.8 | 1 | 44.4 | 1 | ||||||||||
Virginia | 17.7 | 4 | 19.9 | 2 | 17.9 | 4 | 24.5 | 2 | 27.8 | 3 | 38.0 | 2 | 39.8 | 2 |
Competitiveness by state
Overview
Louisiana
Louisiana had a Competitiveness Index of 28.3, ranking it third of the four states that held elections.
- 42 of the 144 seats up for election were open (29%).
- 39 of the 102 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (38%).
- 25 of the 144 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (17%).
In 2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Louisiana, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
House | 29.5% | 40.5% | 16.2% | 28.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 28.2% | 32.1% | 20.5% | 27.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total | 29.2% | 38.2% | 17.4% | 28.3 |
2011-2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Louisiana, 2011-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | Rank | |||||||||||||||||||
2011 | 25.0% | 45.5% | 22.2% | 30.9 | 2 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2013 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2015 | 23.6% | 34.5% | 16.0% | 24.7 | 3 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2017 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 41.7% | 46.4% | 25.0% | 37.7 | 2 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2021 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2023 | 29.2% | 38.2% | 17.4% | 28.3 | 3 / 4 |
See also:
Mississippi
Mississippi had a Competitiveness Index of 18.7, ranking it fourth of the four states that held elections.
- 24 of the 174 seats up for election were open (14%).
- 42 of the 150 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (28%).
- 25 of the 174 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (14%).
In 2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Mississippi, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
House | 15.6% | 27.2% | 13.9% | 18.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 9.6% | 29.8% | 15.4% | 18.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total | 13.8% | 28.0% | 14.4% | 18.7 |
2011-2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Mississippi, 2011-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Year | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | Rank | |||||||||||||||||||
2011 | 15.5% | 23.1% | 37.4% | 25.3 | 3 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2013 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2015 | 13.2% | 34.2% | 32.8% | 26.7 | 2 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2017 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 14.4% | 31.5% | 23.0% | 23.0 | 4 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2021 | Did not hold elections | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2023 | 13.8% | 28.0% | 14.4% | 18.7 | 4 / 4 |
See also:
New Jersey
New Jersey had a Competitiveness Index of 44.4, ranking it first of the four states that held elections.
- 28 of the 120 seats up for election were open (23%).
- 17 of the 93 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (18%).
- 110 of the 120 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (92%).
In 2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
House | 25.0% | 16.7% | 90.0% | 43.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 20.0% | 21.2% | 95.0% | 45.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total | 23.3% | 18.3% | 91.7% | 44.4 |
2011-2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in New Jersey, 2011-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Year | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | Rank | |||||||||||||||||||
2011 | 12.5% | 17.0% | 97.5% | 42.3 | 1 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 5.0% | 14.9% | 96.7% | 38.9 | 1 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2015 | 8.8% | 9.6% | 96.3% | 38.2 | 1 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2017 | 10.8% | 24.3% | 95.8% | 43.6 | 1 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 5.0% | 32.9% | 95.0% | 44.3 | 1 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2021 | 10.0% | 21.3% | 94.2% | 41.8 | 1 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2023 | 23.3% | 18.3% | 91.7% | 44.4 | 1 / 4 |
See also:
Virginia
Virginia had a Competitiveness Index of 39.8, ranking it second of the four states that held elections.
- 44 of the 140 seats up for election were open (31%).
- 17 of the 98 incumbents who ran for re-election faced contested primaries (17%).
- 99 of the 140 seats up for election were contested by both major parties (71%).
In 2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents. Click on headings for more state-specific information.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
House | 33.0% | 8.8% | 65.0% | 35.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 27.5% | 36.7% | 85.0% | 49.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Total | 31.4% | 17.3% | 70.7% | 39.8 |
2011-2023
Hover over column headings to learn more about their contents.
State Legislative Competitiveness Index in Virginia, 2011-2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Year | Open seats | Incs. in contested primaries | Major party competition | Competitiveness Index | Rank | |||||||||||||||||||
2011 | 14.3% | 1.6% | 37.1% | 17.7 | 4 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2013 | 9.0% | 7.7% | 43.0% | 19.9 | 2 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2015 | 10.7% | 8.0% | 35.0% | 17.9 | 4 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2017 | 7.0% | 6.5% | 60.0% | 24.5 | 2 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2019 | 11.4% | 11.3% | 60.7% | 27.8 | 3 / 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
2021 | 5.0% | 17.9% | 91.0% | 38.0 | 2 / 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
2023 | 31.4% | 17.3% | 70.7% | 39.8 | 2 / 4 |
See also:
Open seats
There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Of that total, there were 138 open seats, guaranteeing at least 24% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was the largest number and percentage of open seats since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
An open seat is one where no incumbent filed to run, meaning it is guaranteed to be won by a newcomer. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2023:
Open state legislative seats, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
House | 407 | 45 | 56 | 2 | 103 | 25.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 171 | 17 | 18 | 0 | 35 | 20.5% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total | 578 | 62 | 74 | 2 | 138 | 23.9% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2023. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.
Incumbents in contested primaries
There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Overall, 443 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 115 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 26% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This is the second-largest number and percentage of incumbents running in contested primaries in an odd year since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.
In 2023:
State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Total[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | ||||||||||||||||
House | 407 | 126 | 27 | 21.4% | 176 | 47 | 26.7% | 305 | 74 | 24.3% | ||||||||||||||
Senate | 171 | 61 | 22 | 36.1% | 76 | 19 | 25.0% | 138 | 41 | 29.7% | ||||||||||||||
Total | 578 | 187 | 49 | 26.2% | 252 | 66 | 26.2% | 443 | 115 | 26.0% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2023.
All contested primaries
This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 538 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 877 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 204 contested primaries, meaning 23% of all primaries were contested. This was lower than in 2019 (25%), the last time all four states held elections.
In 2023:
Contested state legislative primaries, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Districts | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Top-two/four | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
House | 367 | 35 | 13.4% | 45 | 20.5% | 57 | 54.3% | 137 | 23.3% | |||||||||||||||
Senate | 171 | 27 | 20.5% | 21 | 17.6% | 19 | 48.7% | 67 | 23.1% | |||||||||||||||
Total | 538 | 62 | 15.7% | 66 | 19.5% | 76 | 52.8% | 204 | 23.3% |
The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2023.
Major party competition
There were 578 state legislative seats up for election in November 2023 in four states. Of that total, 319 (55%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 259 (45%) were contested by both major parties. This was the second-largest number of seats with no major party competition in an odd year since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.
A seat has major party competition when candidates from both major parties are on the general election ballot. When only one major party is running for a seat, it has no major party competition and is effectively guaranteed to the major party candidate on the ballot. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.
Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.
In 2023:
Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Uncontested | Contested | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Only Democrats | Only Republicans | Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
House | 407 | 92 | 22.6% | 143 | 35.1% | 236 | 58.0% | 171 | 42.0% | |||||||||||||||
Senate | 171 | 25 | 14.6% | 58 | 33.9% | 83 | 48.5% | 88 | 51.5% | |||||||||||||||
Total | 578 | 117 | 20.2% | 201 | 34.8% | 319 | 55.2% | 259 | 44.8% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2023.
Terms and definitions
Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:
See also
- Election results, 2023: State legislatures
- State legislative elections, 2023
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2023
- Open seats in state legislative elections, 2023
- Contested state legislative primaries, 2023
- State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2023
- Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2023
- Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2023
- Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2023
Footnotes
- ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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